The Samburu Reserve to the north experienced horrific flooding of the Ewaso Nyiro river during the week, resulting in the loss of at least 7 camps and lodges, and Iain Douglas-Hamilton's elephant research camp.  This is approximately the 3rd time this has happened in the last 10-12 years, although this most recent flooding event was by far the worst.  It will be a disaster economically for the Reserve, and will likely impact negatively against the northern tourism circuit of Kenya.  

For those of you who know this river, it has in recent years become seasonal.  For many months of 2009 it was completely dry, with crocodiles being forced to hide themselves in deep river bank caves to "aestivate" (similar to hibernation) until water returned.  And now heavy flooding after a period of unseasonal rain in the upper reaches of the catchment area.  Previously, whilst water levels clearly fluctuated in accordance with the seasons, the river flowed most of the time, never too high, never completely stopping.  

So what has changed?

Some people are already blaming "climate change", but thats bunkum!  Instead it is the influence of growing human populations that provides the real reason for these recent sharp fluctuations in river flow.  As the number of humans has expanded in the upper reaches, so to has the rate of deforestation (particularly along the banks of tributaries).  Moreover more and more land continues to be converted to agricultural use, often inefficiently.  And where traditional agriculture cannot be practiced for lack of rainfall, growing pastoral communities continue to expand their livestock herds denuding the range of grass cover. Consequently a lack of vegetation, resulting in a lack of ground cover, allows rain-water to flow freely away at a rate that exceeds the ability of existing river courses to cope.  Result: flooding in the wet season, dried up rivers in the dry season.  

Leave aside the reasons, what has happened to Samburu serves to dramatically demonstrate a very important point for conservationists.  As is being increasingly recognized, conservation areas are often dramatically affected by what happens outside their boundaries.  No longer can a system of relatively small and  isolated national parks be considered sufficient to maintain ecosystem integrity.  Instead we must be looking across much wider areas, and that necessarily involves working in landscapes that include people.  

I have said it before, but allow me to reiterate the point - unless we can find ways to "conserve" in a manner that is inclusive of the needs of people, "conservation" as currently practiced (meaning the exclusion of people to provide space for "wilderness") will fail.